NFL Championship weekend

NFL Championship weekend

The final four teams in the NFL square off this weekend to determine who will play in Miami for the right to be crowned king of the NFL for the final season of the decade. We have a matchup in the NFC that everyone predicted way back in week 7 or 8, while over in the AFC we have a matchup that even Rex Ryan didn’t think would happen (he famously claimed after a loss to the Falcons that the Jets had been eliminated from playoff contention, only to be corrected and informed they still had a shot). The Colts had their perfect season broken up by these same Jets, eight days after Ryan’s gaffe. So let’s start with the AFC.
AFC CHCAMPIONSHIP:
As mentioned before, the AFC Title game is a rematch to the week 16 meeting in Indy. The Jets came into that game looking to play spoiler, while the Colts came in knowing they cared more about winning a Super Bowl than going undefeated. The Colts lead 9-3 at the half, a half where they had their starters play the whole time. However, after halftime it was a completely different game. The Jets took the opening kickoff of the second half and returned it 106 yards for a TD and they later added a TD that put them up for good after a Curtis Painter fumble was returned for a score. The Jets put up 26 second half points that afternoon, while the Colts second stringers put up just 6.
No one knows what would have happened on that Sunday had the Colts left their starters in for the entire game, but what we do know is how the Jets and Colts have played since then. The Jets shocked fans of the NFL last week when they forced the Chargers into playing a terrible game of football. The Jets forced two picks, one of which set up their first TD, three fumbles, all of which were recovered by the Chargers, and ten penalties. The Jets offense did not play well. They managed only 262 yards, 53 of which came from one play, a game-sealing run by Shone Green that occurred midway through the fourth quarter. The Chargers offense was able to move the ball on the Jets, as evidenced by their 344 total yards, 283 of which came through the air, the alleged strength of the Jets defense. The Jets also benefited immensely from three missed field goals by Nate Kaeding, a kicker who is THE most accurate in the history of the NFL, and a kicker who missed three kicks ALL season.
The Jets did not play a perfect game by any definition of the phrase. The Chargers had plenty of chances to win this game and force a matchup with Indy in the Championship Game, but decided they would rather play some golf with the Patriots. As a reward for the lackluster play, Norv Turner got an extension and will remain their coach. Crazy.
The Colts on the hand completely dominated their matchup with the Ravens. They won their matchup because they out hustled and out hit the Ravens. The Colts had a pedestrian day on offense, racking up only 275 total yards, but like I said before they out hustled the Ravens. They forced 4 turnovers, while only committing 1. (And on the one pick Manning threw, Pierre Garcon chased down Ed Reed from behind and knocked the ball loose which was of course the Colts recovered) Once this play occurred you knew the Ravens had no chance of coming back. The Colts are an immensely focused and talented team that showed their poise through out the season.
This matchup will come down to the Colts offense vs. the Jets defense. If the Jets defense can do to Indy what it did to the Chargers the Jets will be in the game late in the third quarter and be in a position to win the game. However, if the Colts are able to throw their quick slants and crossing routes, keep the Jets honest with Joseph Addai and Donald Brown they will force the Jets to play catch-up and put the game on the shoulders of Mark Sanchez. Rex Ryan knows that if this occurs, his Super Bowl parade route will be clear on February 9th. The Jets are 8-point underdogs according to Vegas, but they were big underdogs last week and pulled off the upset. However, the Colts are not the Chargers. The Colts are better coached, and they have a far superior QB than the Chargers and the Jets. Manning will be able to make the necessary pre-snap adjustments that will neutralize the Jets defense. I like the Colts to be able to control the offensive tempo and Manning will have clear lanes to throw to his receivers. Colts 24 Jets14

NFC Championship:

Over in the NFC we have the predictable matchup. Ever since week 8 when the Saints were 7-0 and the Vikings were 7-1 we knew this would be the matchup for a trip to the Super Bowl. The Vikings played a great game against the Cowboys last week. They put up big numbers on offense, 323 total yards, and were able to hold a Dallas offense to 248 total yards; the Cowboys were averaging over 415 yards per game in their previous four contests. Everyone knows the Vikings defense is highly talented. They have great bookends in Pat and Kevin Williams and Jared Allen. The Vikings were ranked 6th in overall defense. They can bring the heat on D. On the other side of the ball the Viking boast one of the statistical greats of all time in QB Brett Favre. He is an old time gunslinger. He loves to play with a childish like enthusiasm and his ability to carry teams on his back. They also have a workhorse in Adrian Peterson; however, he has not had a 100-yard rushing game since week 10 against Detroit.
The Saints have been the perennial favorites to represent the NFC since very early in the season. They started off extremely hot, going 13-0 before finally dropping to the Cowboys. Their offense can light up any scoreboard, especially when it is the scoreboard in the Superdome. They are an extremely tough team to beat at home. Losing their last 3 games seemed like it was a bad omen since no team that lost their final three games of the regular season has made it to Super Sunday. The Saints have the offensive power to change that. The Saints put up 45 points, and 418 yards of total offense in their win last week over the Cardinals. Now no one is going to mistake the Cardinals for the Steel Curtain, but the Saints can put up points. Drew Brees has the same qualities that make Peyton Manning so successful. Brees can make great pre-snap reads; and more importantly he gets the ball out quickly, he has a great mix of receivers with Marques Colston, Devery Henderson, Jeremy Shockey, and Robert Meachem. He also has Reggie Bush, no relation to the former President, who had 217 all-purpose yards including a punt return for a TD. The Saints are loaded on offense.
This game will come down to Special teams and turnovers. The Saints offense will have the ability to beat the Vikings defense, as great as their D is, the Cardinals still put up 398 yards in total offense in a win in week 13, and the Viking will be able to put up points to keep up with the Saints. This Game hinges on the shoulders of Brett Favre. If he can play the way he did last week against the Cowboys the Vikings can and should win this matchup. However, if he throws a costly pick, similar to what he did in the 2007 NFC Championship game, the Saints will be able to get the extra score needed to pull out a victory and advance to the Super Bowl.
I have gone back and forth with this pick. On the one hand you have the highest ranked offense in the NFL (the Saints) that seemingly can put up points on anyone. On the other hand you have a team in the Vikings who have a stellar defense, a defense that had the ability to shut down a high-powered offense last weekend against Dallas. What I know for sure is that this will be a highly entertaining game, one that should go back and forth, and come down to the wire. In the end I am going to go with my gut. Drew Brees and the same core of players were in the situation three years ago. They know what it takes to prepare for a game of this magnitude and being there gives players a greater grasp on the urgency that is upon them; an urgency that cannot be transferred by stories. Thus I give the edge to the Saints, and I follow my gut. Saints 38 Vikings 31

Next week I will break down the Super Bowl matchup and you will find out if I think Reggie Bush will be proposing to his girlfriend in the near future. Enjoy the games.