Super Sunday...Will The Saints Go Marching In?

The wait is finally over…it’s Super Bowl weekend. This two-week layoff is way too long, and my team isn’t even playing. The Saints are making their first trip to the Super Bowl, while the Colts return to where they won a Super Bowl four years back. The Saints and Colts have been the perennial favorites to reach the Big Game ever since their sizzling starts. The Colts and Saints both stumbled a bit down the stretch, but once the playoffs started they looked like they never skipped a beat. The Colts trailed the Jets in the AFC championship game at the half, but used a strong second half to overcome that deficient and propel themselves to victory. Meanwhile the Saints forced turnover after turnover to propel themselves to victory over the Vikings.
Now let’s break down the teams:
Offense:
Quarterbacks:
We all know that these two teams possess the best offenses in the game. Brees and Manning are the games first and sixth best-rated passers in the league, respectively. They threw the most and second most touchdown passes this season, and were ranked second and fourth in yards per game. They are both great at avoiding the sack and getting the ball out quickly. They can also make all the pre-snap reads that allows them that extra split second to make a decision post-snap and complete the pass. The difference lies in the fact Manning has been here before and Brees has not. Playing in your first Super Bowl can be very overwhelming and it may take Brees by surprise. Slight Edge Colts
Running Backs:
The Saints are the better running team. They averaged 131 YPG in the regular season, compared to just 80 a game for the Colts. The Saints have Reggie Bush who has the home run capabilities to break a mediocre play into a huge one. The Colts do not have anyone who can match that. Joseph Addai is a capable runner, but the Colts don’t use the run too much. Edge Saints
Offensive Line:
The two lines are quite similar. They have talented players who protect their QB well. (The Colts offensive line gave up only 13 sacks, while the Saints line gave up 20.) However, the lack of sacks has more to do with the QB. Both lines have the ability to open up holes for their running games, although like I said before, the Colts don’t really rely on the run. The lines don’t get called for dumb penalties and they are very disciplined with there play. Even
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends:
The Saints and Colts have explosive playmakers in the receiving corps. The Saints have a good trio in Colston, Henderson, and Meachem. They also have a top tight end in Jeremy Shockey. The four of them combined for 23 TD receptions this season. The Colts have their own trio of receivers in Collie, Garcon, and Wayne. They also add Dwight Clark who is one of the best tight ends in the game. They combined for 31 TD’s this season. Brees likes to spread the ball around, similar to the way Tom Brady used to play before they brought in Welker and Moss. Brady always said his favorite receiver was the open receiver. Brees is very similar to that. Manning, however, likes to stick to his four guys, but as we saw in the AFC Championship game, if you take away Wayne, Manning has no qualms with going to Garcon or Collie. These receiving groups are very explosive and very talented. Even
Defense
The Saints are ranked 25th in the league on defense while the Colts are ranked 18th. Peyton Manning played 9 games this year against teams ranked in the bottom third of the NFL in total defense and his stats in those games? 312 PYPG, 20 passing TD’s and only 5 picks. So Peyton can carve up a bad defense better than Wolfgang Puck can a turkey. However, the difference with the Saints is their ability to force turnovers. The Saints forced 39 turnovers in the regular season; that was good enough for second best. The Saints will find a way to force an extra turnover that can help lead to points. The Colts on the other hand only forced 26 turnovers.
The Colts also have a poor run defense, the Saints will have the ability to run the ball effectively and open up passing lanes with some play-action passing.
The Colts and Saints are both in the middle of the pack in terms of getting to the QB, and with the ability of ach QB to get rid of the ball I see this game with 2 or 3 sacks total. On paper this games looks like it is going to be a shootout, but I think it won’t play that way. Even
Special Teams:
As I don’t envision many field goal attempts to be had in this game, the fact the Saints and Colts are both in the middle of the NFL in FG % won’t play a huge role in this game. However, special teams will come into play in the return game. The big question for Saints fans will be if Reggie Bush can come up with a huge return that will directly setup a TD for the Saints. The Colts don’t really have that feared returner to match the Saints have. Bush has a great chance to force the Colts to kick the ball away from him, thus giving the Saints some extra key yards on a punt. Edge Saints
X-Factor:
The Saints X-factor is two-fold. It is Reggie Bush and the defense. If the defense forces more turnovers than the Colts the Saints will be in a very good position to win this football game. Similarly, if Bush returns a kick for a TD or has a huge return that gives the Saints excellent field position that is a precursor to a TD, the Saints again will be in a great position to win.
The Colts x-factor is their running game. If the Colts can run effectively to keep the Saints linebackers honest it will be tough for the Saints to keep up with the Colts. However, if the Colts are unable to run the ball, the Saints will be all over the Colts receivers and be able to use their natural ball-hawking skills to force a key turnover.
Coaching Staff:
Jim Caldwell is rookie head coach who has gained a plethora of knowledge from Tony Dungy. He also has an assistant head coach in Peyton Manning. Peyton is so good at calling an audible at the line and reading defenses that it is pretty easy to coach the Colts. The Saints on the other had are coached by Sean Peyton. He is a very successful coach and he lead the Saints to the NFC Championship game a few years ago, but this will be his toughest challenge yet. Coaching in the Super Bowl is a whole different beast. Edge Colts
Prediction:
Contrary to what people may be saying, the Super Bowl is evenly matched. The Saints match up very well with the Colts. This game will be relatively low scoring and I think the Saints can pull off the upset. They have the entire South behind them; they are extremely focused and motivated. They have the offense to keep up with the Colts, and they have enough of playmakers in the return game and on defense to set up the extra score needed to win the Big Game. Saints 35 Colts 31
MVP:
I think Drew Brees will be the MVP of this game. He will throw for 3 TD’s and over 300 yards and lead the Saints to victory.

Next week I will take a more in-depth look at the Celtics and let you know their chances of returning the NBA Championship trophy back to Boston.